Panel 1OCR cut wont matter muchRBNZ has slow super tankerRBA has a jet boatPanel 2Lets explain 87% of mortgages fixedNZ$52 bln rolls over soonMost set 2 yrs ago at 8-8.5%Will reset now around 8.5-9%Panel 3Effective mortgage rate risingWill drop just 10bps in 3 yrsThats the RBNZ forecastYet OCR to fall 150 bpsPanel 4Why wont mortgage rates fallForeign funding up 150-200bpsBanks owe NZ$135 bln overseasOpen economy No choiceWe castrated our own RBNZPanel 5However, RBA moves immediate75% of loans are variable rate.Changes take 1 weekImmediate effectPanel 6We need a positive yield curveShould RBNZ cut drastically?No. But worth consideringMay happen anywayPanel 7Foreigners may increase ratesMay see us as riskyNZ debt higher than US debtNet a jet boat
Channel: News & Politics Uploaded: December 31, 1969 at 11:59 pm Author: ofInterestNZ
Length: 05:36 Rating: 5.00 Views: 372
Video Comments
altfseven (December 31, 1969 at 11:59 pm)
8.5% ...wow ... are you able to tell me the lotto numbers too.......
georgewtwat (December 31, 1969 at 11:59 pm)
excellent Video Bernard - you're a great a teacher.
Chandlerbin2006 (December 31, 1969 at 11:59 pm)
Look into the austrian theory of the business cycle.